Well, the 86th Academy Awards ceremony -- hosted by the sure-to-be-stupendous Ellen DeGeneres -- is only five weeks away. Here, I'm going to rank the nominees, from most likely to take home one-fourth of an EGOT to least likely, using my miraculous powers of ESP that have yet to surface.
Actor in a Leading Role
1. Matthew McConaughey -- Dallas Buyers Club
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor -- 12 Years a Slave
3. Bruce Dern -- Nebraska
4. Leonardo DiCaprio -- The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Christian Bale -- American Hustle
Why: Until the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, and SAG Awards, I thought that Ejiofor was the front-runner, which his heart-wrenching performance that moved me to tears. But, after McConaughey picked up all three awards, things have changed drastically. Ejiofor still has a decent shot, but McConaughey is now the clear favorite, for having transformed himself -- physically and emotionally -- in his role as an emaciated AIDS patient. He has come a long way from rom-coms, and it's clear that McConaughey himself is happy to have
Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Jared Leto -- Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender -- 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi -- Captain Phillips
4. Bradley Cooper -- American Hustle
5. Jonah Hill -- The Wolf of Wall Street
Why: Leto, who had been absent from the big screen for quite some time (he's in the band 30 Seconds to Mars), essentially has this in the bag, unless the magnificent Fassbender -- playing a demented, flawed slaveowner -- makes quite an impression on Oscar voters, but I doubt that.
Actress in a Leading Role
1. Cate Blanchett -- Blue Jasmine
2. Amy Adams -- American Hustle
3. Sandra Bullock -- Gravity
4. Meryl Streep -- August: Osage County
5. Judi Dench -- Philomena
Why: American Hustle has been been gaining ground in recent months (see the [slightly] surprise nominations for Bale and Cooper), and Adams is really the only one who could possibly upset Blanchett, though that is highly unlikely. Blanchett's unstable, boozy, no-holds-barred performance is the one to beat.
Actress in a Supporting Role
1. Lupita Nyong'o -- 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence -- American Hustle
3. June Squibb -- Nebraska
4. Julia Roberts -- August: Osage County
5. Sally Hawkins -- Blue Jasmine
Why: This one is really a toss-up, though given Nyong'o's recent Critics' Choice and SAG wins, I'm giving her the edge. It certainly doesn't hurt that her acceptance speeches have been memorably emotional, and Oscar voters seem to lean towards first-time actresses (see Jennifer Hudson's win for Dreamgirls). (Plus, Lawrence took home the Best Actress trophy, so they may want to reward someone else).
Animated Feature Film
1. Frozen
2. The Wind Rises
3. Ernest & Celestine
4. Despicable Me 2
5. The Croods
Why: Unfortunately, Pixar's Monster University didn't make the cut (the second time a Pixar flick didn't get nominated, after the disappointing Cars 2). 2013's other Disney animated film, Frozen, will most likely win here, thanks to its formidable reviews, catchy tunes, and likable story about family and love.
Cinematography
1. Gravity
2. Nebraska
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Prisoners
5. The Grandmaster
Why: Gravity will most likely take home several technical awards, include this one, and rightfully so: it's a technically -- figuratively and literally speaking -- a visual masterpiece, and the cinematography certainly helps to make Bullock's character's situation as terrifying as it should be.
Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. American Hustle
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Invisible Woman
5. The Grandmaster
Why: Oftentimes, the winner in this category is not a beloved or well-received film, but always the costumes are beautiful, and the movie is usually a period one. Gatsby may not have garnered acclaim among critics, but there's no denying the gorgeous outfits, which undeniably get your attention.
Directing
1. Alfonso Cuaron -- Gravity
2. Steve McQueen -- 12 Years a Slave
3. David O'Russell -- American Hustle
4. Alexander Payne -- Nebraska
5. Martin Scorsese -- The Wolf of Wall Street
Why: Because Gravity may not win Best Picture, the Academy will most likely seek to reward him -- especially since he just won the Directors' Guild Award. As we've seen in years past, Best Picture and Best Director don't always line up.
Documentary Feature
1. The Act of Killing
2. 20 Feet From Stardom
3. The Square
4. Cutie and the Boxer
5. Dirty Wars
Why: Killing has won the most awards in this category so far but I wouldn't count out any of the others, especially since the Academy is known to surprise us with an unexpected winner, so any of these have a shot.
Documentary Short Subject
1. Facing Fear
2. The Lady in Number Six
3. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
4. Karama Has No Walls
5. Cavedigger
Why: I'm really making complete guesses in the shorts categories (with the exception of Animated Short), so I'm choosing them based on their topics/plots. Fear focuses on "a former neo-Nazi and the gay victim of his senseless hate crime attack."
Film Editing
1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. Dallas Buyers Club
Why: Like the Directing category, the Editing winner is not always the same as the the Best Picture winner. What's most impressive about Gravity's editing is that all 90 minutes of it is intense, and never is it boring.
Foreign Language Film
1. The Great Beauty
2. The Hunt
3. Omar
4. The Missing Picture
5. The Broken Circle Breakdown
Why: Even though French films Blue is the Warmest Color and The Past -- which received more acclaim all of these nominees -- failed to make the cut, from earlier awards, it seems as though The Great Beauty has the best shot here, though any of the others could win.
Make-up and Hairstyling
1. Dallas Buyers Club
2. The Lone Ranger
3. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Why: Dallas may not only score wins in two acting categories, and Leto owes his convincing transformation partly to the terrific make-up artists.
Music (Original Score)
1. Steven Price -- Gravity
2. Alexandre Desplat -- Philomena
3. William Butler & Owen Pallet -- Her
4. Thomas Newman -- Saving Mr. Banks
5. John Williams -- The Book Thief
Why: Oddly, 12 Years a Slave's score wasn't nominated, so I'm going to go with Gravity's hauntingly spare score.
Music (Original Song)
1. "Let It Go" -- Frozen
2. "Ordinary Love" -- Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
3. "The Moon Song" -- Her
4. "Happy" -- Despicable Me 2
5. "Alone Yet Not Alone" -- Alone Yet Not Alone
Why: I was originally going to guess "Ordinary Love," simply because everyone loves U2 (and they took home the Golden Globe), but the Academy also loves Disney. Plus, Idina Menzel sounds amazing in "Let It Go," and the tune is inspirational and catchy.
Best Picture
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Dallas Buyers Club
5. Nebraska
6. Captain Phillips
7. Her
8. Philomena
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
Why: Entertainment Weekly claims it's a three-way tie between 12 Years, Gravity, and Hustle, but I still think 12 Years will win, and not just because I want it to: Steve McQueen's flawless, tear-inducing drama won the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice awards, and despite losing to Hustle at the SAG awards, I think it still has enough love to take the top prize.
Production Design
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. The Great Gatsby
4. Gravity
5. Her
Why: This one I'm not quite sure about, but I'm going to guess 12 Years, because the sets are timely but not overdone.
Short Film (Animated)
1. Get a Horse!
2. Mr. Hublot
3. Feral
4. Possessions
5. Room on the Broom
Why: Disney hardly ever loses in this category, and this refurbished Mickey Mouse short, featuring Walt Disney's archived voice, is a sure winner.
Short Film (Live Action)
1. The Voorman Problem
2. That Wasn't Me
3. Helium
4. Just Before Losing Everything
5. Do I Have to Take Care of Everything
Why: Sometimes, Academy voters will choose live action shorts with recognizable faces, like this one with Martin Freeman (The Hobbit).
Sound Editing
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. All is Lost
5. Lone Survivor
Why: As mentioned, Gravity will take home multiple technical awards, including those for sound.
Sound Mixing
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Lone Survivor
Why: (See above)
Visual Effects
1. Gravity
2. Iron Man 3
3. Star Trek Into Darkness
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. The Lone Ranger
Why: (See above) and this movie wouldn't be what it is without its innovative, out-of-this-world (no pun intended) visual effects.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
1. John Ridley -- 12 Years a Slave
2. Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke -- Before Midnight
3. Terence Winter -- The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Billy Ray -- Captain Phillips
5. Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope -- Philomena
Why: 12 Years' story is by no means an easy one to bring to the screen, and although it's a wonder why it took so long to bring Solomon Northrup's memoir to life, I can't imagine a better script.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
1. Eric Warren Singer & David O'Russell -- American Hustle
2. Spike Jonze -- Her
3. Woody Allen -- Blue Jasmine
4. Bob Nelson -- Nebraska
5. Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack -- Dallas Buyers Club
Why: This one is somewhat of a toss-up; while Hustle is my best guess, due to its success and rampant raves, Jonze's sci-fi romance dramedy may be the one to upset it. But it's hard to tell.
Actor in a Leading Role
1. Matthew McConaughey -- Dallas Buyers Club
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor -- 12 Years a Slave
3. Bruce Dern -- Nebraska
4. Leonardo DiCaprio -- The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Christian Bale -- American Hustle
Why: Until the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, and SAG Awards, I thought that Ejiofor was the front-runner, which his heart-wrenching performance that moved me to tears. But, after McConaughey picked up all three awards, things have changed drastically. Ejiofor still has a decent shot, but McConaughey is now the clear favorite, for having transformed himself -- physically and emotionally -- in his role as an emaciated AIDS patient. He has come a long way from rom-coms, and it's clear that McConaughey himself is happy to have
Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Jared Leto -- Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender -- 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi -- Captain Phillips
4. Bradley Cooper -- American Hustle
5. Jonah Hill -- The Wolf of Wall Street
Why: Leto, who had been absent from the big screen for quite some time (he's in the band 30 Seconds to Mars), essentially has this in the bag, unless the magnificent Fassbender -- playing a demented, flawed slaveowner -- makes quite an impression on Oscar voters, but I doubt that.
Actress in a Leading Role
1. Cate Blanchett -- Blue Jasmine
2. Amy Adams -- American Hustle
3. Sandra Bullock -- Gravity
4. Meryl Streep -- August: Osage County
5. Judi Dench -- Philomena
Why: American Hustle has been been gaining ground in recent months (see the [slightly] surprise nominations for Bale and Cooper), and Adams is really the only one who could possibly upset Blanchett, though that is highly unlikely. Blanchett's unstable, boozy, no-holds-barred performance is the one to beat.
Actress in a Supporting Role
1. Lupita Nyong'o -- 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence -- American Hustle
3. June Squibb -- Nebraska
4. Julia Roberts -- August: Osage County
5. Sally Hawkins -- Blue Jasmine
Why: This one is really a toss-up, though given Nyong'o's recent Critics' Choice and SAG wins, I'm giving her the edge. It certainly doesn't hurt that her acceptance speeches have been memorably emotional, and Oscar voters seem to lean towards first-time actresses (see Jennifer Hudson's win for Dreamgirls). (Plus, Lawrence took home the Best Actress trophy, so they may want to reward someone else).
Animated Feature Film
1. Frozen
2. The Wind Rises
3. Ernest & Celestine
4. Despicable Me 2
5. The Croods
Why: Unfortunately, Pixar's Monster University didn't make the cut (the second time a Pixar flick didn't get nominated, after the disappointing Cars 2). 2013's other Disney animated film, Frozen, will most likely win here, thanks to its formidable reviews, catchy tunes, and likable story about family and love.
Cinematography
1. Gravity
2. Nebraska
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Prisoners
5. The Grandmaster
Why: Gravity will most likely take home several technical awards, include this one, and rightfully so: it's a technically -- figuratively and literally speaking -- a visual masterpiece, and the cinematography certainly helps to make Bullock's character's situation as terrifying as it should be.
Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. American Hustle
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Invisible Woman
5. The Grandmaster
Why: Oftentimes, the winner in this category is not a beloved or well-received film, but always the costumes are beautiful, and the movie is usually a period one. Gatsby may not have garnered acclaim among critics, but there's no denying the gorgeous outfits, which undeniably get your attention.
Directing
1. Alfonso Cuaron -- Gravity
2. Steve McQueen -- 12 Years a Slave
3. David O'Russell -- American Hustle
4. Alexander Payne -- Nebraska
5. Martin Scorsese -- The Wolf of Wall Street
Why: Because Gravity may not win Best Picture, the Academy will most likely seek to reward him -- especially since he just won the Directors' Guild Award. As we've seen in years past, Best Picture and Best Director don't always line up.
Documentary Feature
1. The Act of Killing
2. 20 Feet From Stardom
3. The Square
4. Cutie and the Boxer
5. Dirty Wars
Why: Killing has won the most awards in this category so far but I wouldn't count out any of the others, especially since the Academy is known to surprise us with an unexpected winner, so any of these have a shot.
Documentary Short Subject
1. Facing Fear
2. The Lady in Number Six
3. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
4. Karama Has No Walls
5. Cavedigger
Why: I'm really making complete guesses in the shorts categories (with the exception of Animated Short), so I'm choosing them based on their topics/plots. Fear focuses on "a former neo-Nazi and the gay victim of his senseless hate crime attack."
Film Editing
1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. Dallas Buyers Club
Why: Like the Directing category, the Editing winner is not always the same as the the Best Picture winner. What's most impressive about Gravity's editing is that all 90 minutes of it is intense, and never is it boring.
Foreign Language Film
1. The Great Beauty
2. The Hunt
3. Omar
4. The Missing Picture
5. The Broken Circle Breakdown
Why: Even though French films Blue is the Warmest Color and The Past -- which received more acclaim all of these nominees -- failed to make the cut, from earlier awards, it seems as though The Great Beauty has the best shot here, though any of the others could win.
Make-up and Hairstyling
1. Dallas Buyers Club
2. The Lone Ranger
3. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Why: Dallas may not only score wins in two acting categories, and Leto owes his convincing transformation partly to the terrific make-up artists.
Music (Original Score)
1. Steven Price -- Gravity
2. Alexandre Desplat -- Philomena
3. William Butler & Owen Pallet -- Her
4. Thomas Newman -- Saving Mr. Banks
5. John Williams -- The Book Thief
Why: Oddly, 12 Years a Slave's score wasn't nominated, so I'm going to go with Gravity's hauntingly spare score.
Music (Original Song)
1. "Let It Go" -- Frozen
2. "Ordinary Love" -- Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
3. "The Moon Song" -- Her
4. "Happy" -- Despicable Me 2
5. "Alone Yet Not Alone" -- Alone Yet Not Alone
Why: I was originally going to guess "Ordinary Love," simply because everyone loves U2 (and they took home the Golden Globe), but the Academy also loves Disney. Plus, Idina Menzel sounds amazing in "Let It Go," and the tune is inspirational and catchy.
Best Picture
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Dallas Buyers Club
5. Nebraska
6. Captain Phillips
7. Her
8. Philomena
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
Why: Entertainment Weekly claims it's a three-way tie between 12 Years, Gravity, and Hustle, but I still think 12 Years will win, and not just because I want it to: Steve McQueen's flawless, tear-inducing drama won the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice awards, and despite losing to Hustle at the SAG awards, I think it still has enough love to take the top prize.
Production Design
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. The Great Gatsby
4. Gravity
5. Her
Why: This one I'm not quite sure about, but I'm going to guess 12 Years, because the sets are timely but not overdone.
Short Film (Animated)
1. Get a Horse!
2. Mr. Hublot
3. Feral
4. Possessions
5. Room on the Broom
Why: Disney hardly ever loses in this category, and this refurbished Mickey Mouse short, featuring Walt Disney's archived voice, is a sure winner.
Short Film (Live Action)
1. The Voorman Problem
2. That Wasn't Me
3. Helium
4. Just Before Losing Everything
5. Do I Have to Take Care of Everything
Why: Sometimes, Academy voters will choose live action shorts with recognizable faces, like this one with Martin Freeman (The Hobbit).
Sound Editing
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. All is Lost
5. Lone Survivor
Why: As mentioned, Gravity will take home multiple technical awards, including those for sound.
Sound Mixing
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Lone Survivor
Why: (See above)
Visual Effects
1. Gravity
2. Iron Man 3
3. Star Trek Into Darkness
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. The Lone Ranger
Why: (See above) and this movie wouldn't be what it is without its innovative, out-of-this-world (no pun intended) visual effects.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
1. John Ridley -- 12 Years a Slave
2. Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke -- Before Midnight
3. Terence Winter -- The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Billy Ray -- Captain Phillips
5. Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope -- Philomena
Why: 12 Years' story is by no means an easy one to bring to the screen, and although it's a wonder why it took so long to bring Solomon Northrup's memoir to life, I can't imagine a better script.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
1. Eric Warren Singer & David O'Russell -- American Hustle
2. Spike Jonze -- Her
3. Woody Allen -- Blue Jasmine
4. Bob Nelson -- Nebraska
5. Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack -- Dallas Buyers Club
Why: This one is somewhat of a toss-up; while Hustle is my best guess, due to its success and rampant raves, Jonze's sci-fi romance dramedy may be the one to upset it. But it's hard to tell.
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